Poll: PC support softens in Toronto, as Tories and Grits remain statistically tied

Jessica Smith Cross QP Briefing - November 29, 2017

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals remain statistically tied in Toronto - but Tory support has dropped five percentage points since October, according to a poll by Forum Research.

Forum has been regularly polling the provincial horse race in Toronto and found last April that the PCs had opened up a seven-point lead over the Liberals — 38 per cent to 31 per cent of decided and leaning voters — in what used to be a Liberal fortress.

Since the spring, the Liberals have closed the gap, with some ups and downs along the way.

Forum's most recent poll, of 843 Toronto voters on Nov. 21 and 22, shows 33 per cent of decided and leaning voters say they would vote Liberal, while 31 per cent say they would vote PC. Liberal support is unchanged from last month, while the PC support dropped five percentage points since Oct. 11, when it stood at 36 per cent.

However, the parties were statistically tied in both polls, with Forum reporting the margins of error in both at +/- three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The NDP trails with 25 per cent in the November poll (23 per cent last month), with the Green Party at seven per cent (six per cent last month) and the support for other parties at four per cent (two per cent last month).

"The Progressive Conservatives should be concerned by a five point drop in support here in Toronto,” said Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, in a statement. “Breaking the Liberals’ Fortress Toronto will be key to Patrick Brown’s electoral success, and if the Liberals can manage to hold Toronto, it’s not inconceivable they can win a government.”

The battle for Toronto is being waged even before both parties have nominated their candidates in the city. While the PCs have nominated most of their 124 candidates provincially, most of their remaining vacancies are in Toronto. Two of the parties' star candidates are in areas just outside of Toronto where the Tories have traditionally found stronger support – Caroline Mulroney in York-Simcoe and Rod Phillips in Ajax.

(File photo by Cole Burston/Toronto Star)

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